An Analysis of Reciprocal Preferential Trade Access between Sub-Saharan Africa and Industrialized Countries
Manitra A. Rakotoarisoa, Badri Narayanan G., Sangeeta Khorana
This paper employs General Equilibrium framework modeling and estimates the effects of reciprocal preferential trade liberalization between Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the European Union (EU-25) and all industrialized countries by taking differences in labour productivity into account. We use the standard GTAP 7.1 version, with eight aggregated sectors and ten aggregated regions. Simulation results show that prior to reciprocal tariff elimination, when econometric estimates of labour productivity growth are included, SSA loses by USD 12.6 billion annually because of lagging productivity growth, especially in its manufacturing sector. Elimination of tariffs between SSA and all industrialized countries in agriculture and manufacturing sectors improves SSA’s welfare by USD 2 billion, as a result of an increase in endowment and allocative efficiency effects. The gains, however, are not substantial. Results also show that a minimal annual average growth rate of 3 per cent in labour productivity in the manufacturing sector will lead to positive allocative and endowment efficiency effects and counter SSA welfare losses.